Using accurate data to minimise your risk in the grain market

Who we are

Using accurate research and market analysis, we take the complexity and noise out of the grain market.  We tailor our grain marketing advice to your personal requirements, setting reasonable personal targets to increase profitability but also reduce risk. Opinions are great, but we use the data!

Who you are

We adapt our grain marketing services to meet your needs within the grain industry. Whether you are a corporate business looking to improve business strategies, a farmer who grows grain or dairy farmer looking to lower your outgoing costs, we have a solution for you. Through market analysis we aim to reduce cost, reduce risk and thus improve your margins.

About

About Lachstock

Minimise your risk whilst maximising your return

Lachstock was founded in 2007 a result of the deregulation of the grain market. The grain market experienced changes to procurement, distribution, product release and an increase in grain price volatility. With more participants and products hitting the market the buying and selling of grain became a complex process.

Lachstock uses analytical research rather than a salesperson with a silver tongue. Taking the complexity and noise out of the market whilst tailoring our advice to your personal requirements. We analyse the prior data and set reasonable personal targets to increase profitability but also reduce risk.

Lachstock Consulting holds an AFSL #320 562 to provide advice to wholesale clients on derivatives and foreign exchange.

Lachstock provides services to both corporate clients and farmers. Tailoring our solutions to your needs.

RESEARCH

Example Wheat Supply & Demand Report

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20th January 2020

Australia:

With the last bits of harvest pretty much wrapped up in the WD, Lachstock has taken our wheat crop to 15.3 MMT (5.8 WA, 3.6 SA, 3.8 VIC, 1.7 NSW, 0.4 QLD). (This is the same as reflected in our production update last week). We make note that, in WA in particular, we are aware of many talking a lower crop figure – but when we pencil out non-CBH figures (retained seed, direct to feed, Bunge system, etc) we see a minimum of ~700 kmt above and beyond the CBH system recievals. This is around the historical norm for the state and is roughly what’s needed to cover domestic use in the state. At this point we do not expect to see significant changes in the crop estimates going forward.

With the wider price spreads between barley and wheat, barley transhipments have pushed up very sharply as it works to buy demand away from wheat. At the same time, with the lower harvest coming off in WA the spreads between WA and SA have pushed spreads away from WA wheat – we’ve taken down total transhipment estimates ex-WA to 1.1 MMT and increased net SA figures to 1.25 MMT (including overland). VIC transhipments are also up to a net -1 MMT, which is effectively a solving factor right now – it’s what we are penciling “needs” to happen given the demand flow. Easily arguable that more will come over-water from SA and WA, but at the same time neither one is overly export competitive and the gist is that, in net, we “need” to see some 3.35 MMT of wheat move from WA/SA/VIC into NSW/QLD to fill consumptive needs.

To that point…..

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