US election to hit Aussie prices
THE upcoming United States’ election will have far-reaching implications for the rest of the world, particularly in the agriculture sector.
The impact of COVID-19 has forced both parties to rethink and adjust policy, a trend that will undoubtedly continue right up to election day.
However, there are some key differences between US President Donald Trump and rival Joe Biden that will not only define the election outcome, but will also influence the farmgate price of grain in Australia. It’s important to note that this election is far from decided. If we learnt one thing from the last US election, it’s that polls and mainstream media’s predictions can be far from accurate. Add in a global pandemic and unprecedented government stimulus packages and the waters get a little muddier.
There are some key policy differences that will heavily affect the US farmer and subsequently influence global trade flows. This arguably will have increased significance to the Australian grain market as we potentially move back to a more traditional export-driven focus.
- The US dollar is one area that will be of great interest to the Australian exporter.
- The Aussie dollar has been relatively firm over the past few months which has been more about US dollar selling rather than outright Australian dollar buying.
- UBS has indicated that a Biden win could signal more weakness for the US dollar as the Democrats shift from the Republicans trade protectionist policy.
- Additional predictions about increased regulation for the energy and financial sector, higher taxes to combat the stimulus spend and reduced “influence” over the Federal Reserve are all linked to a Democratic win.
This would certainly support the Australian dollar but, it must be noted, is far from a certainty. The fact that COVID-19 is a global pandemic and governments around the world are all walking a similar path to the US in relation to stimulus strategies, mean relative value between countries is difficult to calculate.
Interestingly China is the one key policy area where both parties are seemingly aligned. Mr Biden has indicated that he will “stand up to China by working with our allies to negotiate from the strongest position possible”. What this means in the context of the current trading relationship and, more importantly the Phase One Trade Deal is unclear. The Phase One Trade Deal was inked back in January which, among other things, detailed the $200 billion increase in Chinese purchases of US goods over two years.
Subsequently US/China relations have soured due in part to COVID-19 and the recently implemented Hong Kong security laws. With the six month review underway and China well behind the pace required to adhere to the deal, Mr Trump has indicated that the deal now means “very little”. Focusing on the impact COVID-19 has had on the US, Mr Trump has continued to attribute blame and has threatened to end the trade pact with Beijing.
Arguably, COVID-19 and Mr Trump’s reaction to the wider impacts have improved his position with US farmers. His pre-COVID budget included cuts to crop insurance subsidies and the reduction of assistance to higher income farmers. Since the lockdowns Mr Trump has aggressively sought to reduce the impact to the nation’s food producers through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES Act), a $2 trillion spending bill that includes extensive provisions for the agriculture sector.
US elections are difficult to predict but this one seems close to impossible. With the election taking place in November, the most pressing impact to the Australian grain producer will be the reaction of the US dollar and subsequent path of the Australian dollar.
I will fall short of giving you my prediction other than this campaign has more twists to come and you can’t write off the incumbent just yet.
Nick Carracher, Lachstock Consulting
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